Who doesn’t love a just right what-if query, so let’s ask this one:
What if this baseball season had began in the course of July rather of the closing presen of March? Have you ever concept a lot about how otherwise we’d be viewing just about each contender within the recreation?
In fact you haven’t. However that’s what we’re right here for. So check out the second-half data of all of the groups that will assemble the postseason if the match began as of late, with the Braves and Mets each incorporated since they’re join for the overall NL wild-card spot. First, let’s take a look at …
The Just right
Padres: 30-13
Diamondbacks: 30-14
Dodgers: 28-15
Brewers: 26-17
Mets: 27-18
Astros: 25-19
Royals: 24-20
We will discuss the ones groups some alternative age. However now let’s hone in at the remains of this team. See what jumps out at you as you peruse …
The No longer So Just right
Twins: 22-23
Guardians: 22-23
Phillies: 22-22
Orioles: 23-22
Yankees: 22-20
Braves: 23-22
You know which two groups jumped out at me? The Phillies and Guardians. Aren’t they the latter reminder {that a} baseball season can really feel as lengthy and winding because the Appalachian Path?
For greater than 3 months this season, the Phillies and Guardians owned the 2 very best data within the recreation. Later baseball came about.
On July 1, they had been each on 100-win paces. Now, as that standings chart illustrates so vividly, they’ve spent the life two months enjoying extra like an 80-win staff than a 100-win staff. Humorous how that occurs. The query is, what does it cruel for his or her win-the-International-Sequence aspirations?
They’re no longer the primary groups in historical past to find how lengthy a baseball season truly is. However that isn’t the tale right here.
The tale is: A coarse moment 1/2, for groups like this, steadily manner greater than you’d almost certainly assumption it manner. I’ve executed the maths so that you don’t must.
The wild-card month is 30 seasons impaired now. You’d suppose the wild-card protection web would have given many groups the rope to slog via a .500-ish moment 1/2 — or worse — and nonetheless be able to rock in October. But when that’s what you’d suppose, suppose once more. Take a look at what’s in truth came about, simply within the theoretically extra forgiving wild-card month (1995-present).
Dropping second-half data, nonetheless made it to the International Sequence
2023 Diamondbacks: 32-39
2006 Cardinals: 35-39
2006 Tigers: 36-38
Worst second-half data, gained the International Sequence
2006 Cardinals: 35-39
1996 Yankees: 40-37
2014 Giants: 35-31
(Supply: Baseball Reference / Stathead)
Adam Wainwright celebrates later the Cardinals defeated the Tigers in Recreation 5 to win the 2006 International Sequence. (David E. Klutho / Sports activities Illustrated by way of Getty Photographs)
Sure, you learn that proper. Within the wild-card month, just one staff has survived a shedding document later the All-Superstar fracture and nonetheless gained the International Sequence. …
And simplest 3 groups have performed .500 or worse or even lived to play games in a International Sequence — the place two of them (the 2006 Cardinals and Tigers) in truth matched up with every alternative. …
However although we carry the bar rather, each International Sequence winner in those closing 3 a long time has been no less than 5 video games over .500 in the second one 1/2 — excluding for the 3 groups above.
So what does that let us know about baseball? Let’s ask the chief of the membership that had the worst moment 1/2 of any of the groups on the ones lists — Torey Lovullo of the 2023 Diamondbacks.
“It’s an emotional roller coaster,” Lovullo instructed me and Doug Glanville at the unedited episode of The Windup’s Starkville podcast. “This game is crazy. And it will wear you down.”
So how does any staff spin via that curler coaster and live to tell the tale with plethora equilibrium to clash the reset button in October?
“We talk about consistency,” Lovullo stated. “We just want to have guys that understand where they’re at and not get too high or not get too low. But eventually, we’re going to find our way. It’s the madness of a baseball season, and it does happen. And if you let it spiral, it will take you into a place that’s very dark. But if you believe that you’re going to find a way out of it, (you can).”
Extra at the Diamondbacks momentarily. However first, let’s glance extra carefully on the Phillies and Guardians — and the way apprehensive they must be about their very own second-half problems.
The Phillies

The Phillies had been driving imposing after they swept the Dodgers in July. Later issues went sideways. (Invoice Streicher / USA Lately)
THEIR GREATEST HITS — On July 9-10-11, the Phillies bulldozed Shohei Ohtani’s Dodgers in a three-game layout in Philadelphia. So 93 video games into their season, the Phillies had been 61-32. They had been on a 106-win life. They had been 6 1/2 video games up on L.A. within the race for the Nationwide League’s Deny. 1 seed. They’d the most efficient pitching team of workers within the league and the private offense within the league. What may be able to travel fallacious? Ha.
HOW WRONG COULD IT GO? So naturally, over the Phillies’ after 35 video games, they went 13-22. Just one staff had a worse document over that six-week stretch. And it used to be — who else? — the White Sox. Simply 3 groups had a worse ERA in that span. And the Phillies’ once-rampaging offense scored just about 80 fewer runs in that extend than Torey Lovullo’s Diamondbacks. So …
HOW’D THAT HAPPEN? There used to be something Dave Dombrowski knew: Regardless of the heck used to be happening along with his staff, the ones 35 video games had been no longer telling him this team wasn’t gifted plethora.
“We had eight All-Stars, right?” the Phillies’ president of baseball operations stated. “So that tells you you’re a very talented team. So you don’t go from a team that has a lot of talent to not having any talent.”
However Dombrowski did see a number of issues that involved him. One used to be the pitching — initiation with a banged-up rotation whose problems wound up overtaxing the Phillies’ up to now dominant bullpen.
Phillies pitching meltdown
March 28 – July 11 | July 12 – Aug. 23 | |
---|---|---|
Starters’ ERA | 3.17 | 4.58 |
Bullpen ERA | 3.32 | 5.89 |
General ERA | 3.22 | 5.10 |
However Dombrowski additionally used to be confused via the stunning lessen of the offense later a constantly relentless first 1/2. Nearest factor he knew, that very same lineup spent a age re-enacting NLCS Video games 6 and seven in opposition to the Diamondbacks.
Phillies lineup meltdown
March 28 – July 11 | July 12 – Aug. 23 |
---|---|
.260/.331/.424/.755 | .245/.309/.401/.710 |
third/third/4th/4th in MLB | 18th/nineteenth/twenty second/twenty second in MLB |
Maximum of all, although, Dombrowski puzzled if possibly they’d all gotten too comfy later this kind of dominant first 1/2. The Phillies had this kind of enormous manage via the center of June, they appeared to get started prioritizing what they may do to store their core wholesome for October. So Dombrowski admits he has requested himself if that in all probability despatched the fallacious message.
“I don’t know,” he stated. “Maybe we set the tempo somewhere. Maybe we started looking at the long term rather than the short term. But I’m not sure about that.”
He simply knew there used to be age to recovery what felt damaged. And over the closing couple of weeks, the Phillies appear to have executed that, roaring via a 9-2 streak in opposition to the Royals, Astros, Braves, Blue Jays and Marlins. So what modified? We’ll get again to that momentarily. However first …
The Guardians

Upcoming a win over the White Sox on July 4, the high-flying Guardians had been one of the most worst groups within the AL over the after 48 video games. (David Richard / USA Lately)
THEIR GREATEST HITS — At the Fourth of July, the Guardians dusted off the White Sox to boost their document to 54-31. They led the AL Central via six video games (later as soon as prominent via as many as 9 in past due June). They’d the most efficient document within the American League, the fewest runs allowed within the league and 80 extra runs scored than that they had on the identical level closing season. So that they had been all prepared for a run at 100 wins, proper? Oops.
HOW WRONG COULD IT GO? The marathon is at all times longer than it sort of feels. Over the after 48 video games, the Guardians went 21-27. Handiest two groups within the AL — the Angels and White Sox — had worse data in that extend. The Guardians’ initiation pitching imploded (10-24, 4.87 ERA). And going via their 83 wRC+, simplest two lineups in baseball had been much less fertile.
By means of the tip of play games on Aug. 27, later a 3rd directly loss at house to Kansas Town, the Guardians’ nine-game residence had, shockingly, disappeared. The Royals had join them within the standings. And a stupendous Cleveland baseball summer time didn’t appear so balmy anymore. So …
HOW’D THAT HAPPEN? Was once it truly as bleak as all the ones messy factoids above made it appear? No longer within the ocular of the Guardians’ unflappable president of baseball ops, Chris Antonetti.
“We had a really tough stretch of games after the All-Star break,” Antonetti stated, “with seven of our nine opponents in playoff position at the time we played them.
“Last I looked,” he went on, “I think we have the second-most wins in the AL against teams with better than a .500 record. So we’ve held our own there.”
However does that document abandoned inform the entire tale of the Guardians? I’m no longer so positive it does.
Early within the season, balls had been crusing over the fence. Steven Kwan gave the impression of he may assemble a fee at .400. And this gave the look of an absolutely other offense than the crowd that completed twenty seventh in MLB in runs scored closing hour — and lifeless closing in homers.
However what did the after seven weeks seem like, later the White Sox left the town on July 4? No longer reasonably so picturesque!
Guardians lineup meltdown
March 28 – July 4 | July 5 – Aug. 27 |
---|---|
.245/.318/.410/.728 | .220/.289/.360/.648 |
thirteenth/Eleventh/Ninth/twelfth in MLB | twenty seventh/twenty ninth/twenty eighth/twenty eighth in MLB |
But in addition, there have been …
Steven Kwan’s splits
First 1/2 | 2nd 1/2 |
---|---|
.352/.407/.513/.920* | .194/.277/.286/.563** |
(*Eleventh-best in MLB; **Ninth-lowest in MLB)
Just like the Phillies, the Guardians appear to have rebounded within the closing presen or so. They’ve gained 5 in their closing seven. They’ve stretched their manage within the Central again to 4 video games. They usually averaged just about seven runs in step with match within the 5 wins. So when Antonetti seems at those closing two months, he sees simply the standard “ebbs and flows to the regular season.”
He sees a rotation that appears a lot progressed later the addition of Alex Cobb and Matthew Boyd. He sees an offense whose downturn stemmed most commonly from matchups with a number of skillful workers. So right here used to be his big-picture learn:
“Maybe I’m not thinking about it deeply enough,” he stated. “But I’m not sure there’s too much I’d make of it. There’s not a lot of predictability to which teams win and advance once the postseason starts.”
Later he requested: “Didn’t Texas and Arizona (the two World Series teams in 2023) struggle in August last year before surging in September?”
Finest query! The Rangers misplaced 16 of 20 in August and September, however upcoming gained 17 in their after 21 video games. And the Diamondbacks rocked via a wilder trip to the International Sequence than any staff ever.
On July 1, they had been 16 video games over .500 (50-34). However upcoming … repeat later me … baseball came about. The Diamondbacks gained simplest seven in their after 32, propelling them from 16 video games over .500 to 2 video games beneath, with 46 left to play games. Whereupon they boomeranged once more, going 27-15 sooner than getting swept of their ultimate layout of the season in Houston.
It added as much as a sub-.500 moment 1/2 — however with a season-saving rebound in September. And if that looks like a blueprint for all of the groups on our No longer So Just right record, it’s as a result of it’s.
For each a kind of groups, September offer the chance to rediscover their first-half mojo. And the Diamondbacks inclined into that chance, upcoming worn the reminiscence of that rebound once more this season to gas their roasting medication from a 25-32 get started.
“I think our guys have a very high baseball IQ … and this innate belief,” Lovullo stated. “We used to hope we were going to win games. We were so concerned about what’s happening across the field, in the other dugout. (But now) we believe in so much of what’s going on in our space that we know we’re going to find a way to get something done every single night.”

“If you let it spiral, it will take you into a place that’s very dark. But if you believe that you’re going to find a way out of it, (you can),” stated Torey Lovullo, who guided the 2023 D-Backs to an not likely International Sequence look. (Joe Camporeale / USA Lately)
So what have we realized from those rides at the baseball curler coaster? It’s as unadorned as a 3-and-2 fastball:
Wake me up sooner than September ends
If all of this feels usual to Dave Dombrowski, it’s as a result of he has revealed this film sooner than. Heck, he lived this film — with the 2006 Tigers.
“It’s funny. I was talking to Jim Leyland (the manager of that Tigers team) about 2006 just recently,” Dombrowski stated. “And we agreed that one of the common denominators was: You must have had a really good first half … to qualify for the postseason and still be below .500 in the second half. So basically, it usually means the talent is there. And for some reason, you’ve fallen off. So why?”
Why? Dombrowski believes there’s not more remarkable query for any staff to consider. When a staff starts to slip, there’s virtually at all times a couple of reason why. However the threat signal he’s at all times looking for is when a staff with a enormous manage takes its understructure off the accelerator.
“Sometimes,” he stated, “some people will become somewhat, I don’t know if this is the right word, but content. They’ll lose a little bit of that extra fire. And even though that’s not good, what you need to do is rekindle that fire — to find it again in order to be successful in the postseason.”
That’s precisely what came about to that 2006 Tigers staff, he believes. So “the key to getting back on track,” he stated, “is the ‘why’ — and how do you fix it?”
In 2006, Leyland delivered a message to his troops that September: Let’s get centered. And over the life couple of weeks, Dombrowski stated, his supervisor in Philly, Rob Thomson, has empowered the leaders in his clubhouse to sing that very same music.
“It’s something they’ve talked about,” Dombrowski stated, “something they’ve worked on. And I think they’ve already gotten that message across. I think we’ve played much better (recently). And we really needed to get that back in gear.”
Is the baseball marathon a layout of ebbs and flows? It at all times is. And on occasion the ones ebbs and flows even clash in September. However as October nears, Dombrowski has lengthy understood, the most efficient groups realize it’s the facility to play games with center of attention and effort each occasion that steadily separates the champs from everybody else.
So in baseball, September isn’t foliage age. It’s center of attention age.
“It’s just one of those things,” he stated, “where you just need to kind of get it back. When you win a lot of games early, you put yourself in a position where you can withstand that little lull.
“But you’re not going to win a championship,” Dombrowski stated, “if you continue to have that lull going into the postseason.”
(Manage photograph of Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh: Matt Krohn / Getty Photographs)