The NFL’s Thanksgiving time table delivers three-fourths of what may turn into essentially the most dominant department for the reason that league realigned in 2002.
The 2024 NFC North is the primary department for the reason that 1970 AFL-NFL merger to property 3 groups with a minimum of 8 victories thru Date 12, led through the 10-1 Detroit Lions, who’ve secured an all-time NFL mark for many victories in a season through a minimum of 38 issues (3, all outdoor the department).
With the Lions going through the division-rival Chicago Bears (4-7) within the early sport Thursday sooner than the 8-3 Inexperienced Bay Packers play games the past due sport towards the AFC East’s Miami Dolphins, the 2024 NFC North — which additionally contains the 9-2 Minnesota Vikings — stands aside. It might smartly come to a decision who takes house the Lombardi Trophy.
The Lions (+260), Packers (+750) and Vikings (+850) are some of the supremacy seven in Tremendous Bowl odds, consistent with BetMGM, and the supremacy 4 in odds to win the NFC, at the side of the Philadelphia Eagles (+325). The Lions stay Tremendous Bowl favorites, conveniently forward of the Kansas Town Chiefs (+450), moment the NFC North has the shortest odds to assemble the champion at +175, part of the second-place AFC West (+350).
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The chart underneath presentations the place all 8 categories have ranked each and every season for the reason that league realigned in 2002 in level margin consistent with sport (X-axis) and win charge (Y-axis) in non-divisional video games during the first 12 weeks of each and every season. The 2024 NFC North (purple dot) ranks first amongst those 184 divisional seasons in reasonable level margin (+9.5) and moment in win charge (.765), consistent with TruMedia.
Handiest the 2022 NFC East (26-7) had a greater file than the 2024 NFC North (26-8) in non-division video games thru Date 12, however the stream NFC North had a a ways higher reasonable level margin (+9.5 to +5.1) in those video games.
Right here’s what you wish to have to find out about the place the NFC North stands and what it should do to turn into essentially the most dominant department over a complete season since realignment.
1. The NFC North is through a ways essentially the most dominant department this season.
The scheduling rotation (which we’ll discover after) is a part of the equation, however this degree of dominance is closing.
2024 non-divisional sport scorecard
| Section | W-L | Level Margin |
|---|---|---|
|
NFC North |
26-8 (.765) |
+323 |
|
AFC West |
19-12 (.613) |
+74 |
|
AFC North |
17-16 (.515) |
+56 |
|
NFC West |
15-15 (.500) |
-33 |
|
NFC East |
15-16 (.484) |
-33 |
|
AFC East |
13-18 (.419) |
-38 |
|
NFC South |
10-18 (.357) |
-138 |
|
AFC South |
11-23 (.324) |
-211 |
AFC North groups top the best way in overall victories over combatants who these days have profitable data (11) and overall non-divisional victories in those video games (9). The NFC North is moment with 8 and 6.
Since 2002, the NFC North’s +323 level margin ranks first through 64 issues over the runner-up 2013 NFC West (+259) thru Date 12. This is higher than the too much between the 2013 NFC West and the sixth-ranked department in that span, the 2011 NFC North (+200). The desk underneath presentations the one categories since 2002 with PPG margins more than 7.0 thru Date 12, led through the 2024 NFC North.
2002-24 non-division PPG margin (Wk 1-12)
| Section | W-L | PPG Margin |
|---|---|---|
|
2024 NFC North |
26-8 (.765) |
+9.5 |
|
2013 NFC West |
23-9 (.719) |
+8.1 |
|
2002 NFC South |
17-8-1 (.673) |
+7.3 |
|
2008 NFC South |
22-8 (.733) |
+7.2 |
|
2011 NFC North |
19-9 (.679) |
+7.1 |
|
2005 AFC West |
20-10 (.667) |
+7.1 |
2. Robust protection has been the important thing to the NFC North dominating its non-divisional time table.
The 2024 NFC North ranks first amongst 184 categories since 2002 in defensive EPA consistent with play games towards non-division combatants, in comparison to a Deny. 69 rating in offensive EPA consistent with play games.
| Non-Section Division | 2024 NFC North | Rank of 184 |
|---|---|---|
|
W-L |
26-8 (.765) |
2 |
|
PPG |
26.1 |
16 |
|
PPG allowed |
16.6 |
2 |
|
PPG differential |
+9.5 |
1 |
|
Rating differential/play games |
+4.86 |
1 |
|
OFF EPA/play games |
+0.013 |
69 |
|
DEF EPA/play games |
+0.148 |
1 |
All 4 NFC North groups rank some of the NFL’s supremacy 10 in defensive EPA consistent with play games throughout all video games this season. They’re all within the supremacy 5 when keeping apart non-divisional video games most effective. The Lions and Packers additionally rank some of the supremacy 10 on offense throughout all video games and in non-division video games.
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3. Dominating a susceptible AFC South accounts for 61 % of the NFC North’s +323 level differential in non-division video games.
NFC North groups are 8-0 with a +144 differential towards the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. They’re 14-2 with a +197 differential towards the total AFC South. Malicious groups get blown out. The NFC North has performed its percentage of them.
2024 NFC North non-division scorecard
40-five % of the +323 differential in non-division video games stems from going through the Jaguars and Titans, moment 61 % stems from going through the AFC South general.
The six alternative categories are a mixed 9-9 towards the AFC South, with a +14 differential. That features a 6-7 mark with a +21 differential for AFC East groups.
4. The NFC North has a 6-4 file towards non-divisional combatants who had profitable data thru Date 12. Right here’s a complete accounting.
The Bears are the one NFC North workforce with out a victory over a workforce that these days has a profitable file. They’re 0-3 in the ones matchups, headlined through their defeat at Washington on a Jayden Daniels Downpour Mary. The extra of the NFC North has a 6-1 file in the ones video games, with 3 victories over Houston, two over Arizona and one over Seattle.
2024 NFC North vs. groups now above .500
| NFC North Crew | Wk-Opp | Outcome | Level Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
|
3-HOU |
W, 34-7 |
+27 |
|
|
6-AZ |
W, 34-13 |
+21 |
|
|
4-SEA |
W, 42-29 |
+13 |
|
|
3-AZ |
W, 20-13 |
+7 |
|
|
10-HOU |
W, 26-23 |
+3 |
|
|
7-HOU |
W, 24-22 |
+2 |
|
|
8-WAS |
L, 18-15 |
-3 |
|
|
1-PHI |
L, 34-29 |
-5 |
|
|
2-HOU |
L, 19-13 |
-6 |
|
|
9-AZ |
L, 29-9 |
-20 |
The NFC North’s file can be 6-3 if we adjusted the parameters to property non-divisional video games towards groups that had profitable data at kickoff. Victories over Dallas, San Francisco and Tampa Bay would come into play games.
5. NFC North groups play games 10 extra video games towards non-division combatants this season. Right here’s what the department should do to turn into essentially the most dominant since 2002.
The NFL pushes maximum department video games after within the season for aggressive causes. That leaves most effective 10 too much non-division video games for the NFC North to develop upon its dominance or fall within the scores. The ones video games are indexed underneath chronologically and with level spreads pulled in combination from numerous assets the place to be had.
Extra non-division combatants
| NFC North Crew | Date | Level Unfold |
|---|---|---|
|
13 |
-3.5 (vs. AZ) |
|
|
13 |
-3 (vs. MIA) |
|
|
14 |
+6.5 (at SF) |
|
|
14 |
-5.5 (vs. ATL) |
|
|
15 |
-2 (vs. BUF) |
|
|
15 |
-1 (at SEA) |
|
|
16 |
+2 (at SEA) |
|
|
16 |
-5 (vs. NO) |
|
|
17 |
+3.5 (at SEA) |
|
|
17 |
-5 (at SF) |
The 2013 NFC North holds the full-season file for PPG margin towards non-divisional combatants since realignment (+359 in 40 video games, for 8.975 consistent with sport). That department featured the 13-3 Tremendous Bowl champion Seahawks, the Jim Harbaugh-coached 49ers (12-4), the Bruce Arians-coached Cardinals (10-6) and the 7-9 Rams.
NFC North groups should outscore their 10 too much non-divisional combatants through 72 issues to overcome the 2013 NFC West for the most efficient full-season differential since 2002. That may release the department +395 in 44 video games for a +8.977 PPG differential.
The most productive full-season file towards non-divisional combatants since 2002 is shared through the 2013 NFC West and the 2007 NFC South at 30-10 (.750). The NFC North (these days .765 at 26-8) would equivalent that mark with a 7-3 end towards foes outdoor the department.
The most productive workforce within the NFC North (Detroit) shall be at house for the department’s hardest too much opponent (Buffalo). The Seahawks’ contemporary growth on protection may complicate efforts for Chicago, Minnesota and Inexperienced Bay to win at Seattle. The 49ers’ lessen may support Chicago (Date 14) and Detroit (Date 17).
Inexperienced Bay and Minnesota can poised the sound in Date 13. Each are appreciated at house towards non-division combatants.
(Picture of Josh Jacobs, heart, and 3 Lions defenders: Stacy Esteem / Getty Photographs)
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