Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, Lamar Jackson and a scorching MVP race: Sando’s Pick out Six

Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, Lamar Jackson and a scorching MVP race: Sando’s Pick out Six

The MVP race crash some other equipment Sunday night time.

Buffalo Expenses quarterback Josh Allen hung out in high occasion on the San Francisco 49ers’ expense, carving snow angels at the discipline with tutor Sean McDermott, no longer lengthy upcoming Saquon Barkley and Lamar Jackson shared the NFL’s late-afternoon highlight.

Negative working again has gained MVP honors in additional than a decade, and if trendy NFL math is your faith, none must contend for the award once more, as a result of passing is king.

How a lot amusing is that?

When Barkley ran off the suitable aspect for a 25-yard landing to aid keep the Philadelphia Eagles’ 24-19 victory over Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens, we have been reminded, once more, how a lot he issues for this Eagles offense.

The Pick out Six column leads this age through sizing up the important MVP applicants, with an perceptible towards the unedited odds, which partial Allen (-250) forward of Barkley (+400), Jared Goff (+900), Jackson (+1100) and Patrick Mahomes (+1400). The total menu this age, origination with my case for Jackson, regardless of contemporary occasions.

• Sizing up the 2024 MVP race
• Steelers’ occasion: Wilson & the OC
• NFC North ultimate department since 1970
• Raiders, Bears end-game takeaways
• Dolphins comfortable? Let’s have a look
• 2-minute drill: Historical Seahawks

1. Lamar Jackson’s manufacturing units him aside amongst MVP applicants, however with two of his worst statistical video games enjoying out in contemporary broadly televised defeats, his candidacy has taken a crash.

• Why Jackson tops my poll now: The most productive MVP applicants are quarterbacks who raise their groups to victories regardless of penniless aid from their defenses and particular groups. That is when probably the most reliable avid gamers (quarterbacks) are actually maximum reliable.

Patrick Mahomes sporting Kansas Town to Tremendous Bowl victories upcoming the 2018 and 2022 seasons, when the ones Chiefs groups ranked twenty seventh and twenty ninth, respectively, in blended EPA on protection/particular groups, is a part of what units him with the exception of alternative championship quarterbacks.

Jackson nonetheless will have to end up himself within the postseason, however the MVP is a regular-season award, and Jackson is doing what best MVP-caliber quarterbacks are ready to do. The QB Betrayal Index revealed closing pace confirmed him important the best way on this measure of QB worth, a large exchange for Baltimore, which as soon as ruled on protection and particular groups, making it more straightforward to win.

With kicker Justin Tucker slumping and the protection nonetheless discovering its foot, the Ravens rank twenty ninth in blended EPA on protection and particular groups, one spot forward of Cincinnati. They’re nevertheless 8-5 and projected to complete 11-6, according to The Athletic’s fashion, as a result of their offense ranks first in EPA total and according to play games.

The Betrayal Index takes EPA related to the quarterback, subtracts his group’s EPA on protection/particular groups and nearest divides the whole through video games began. When QB EPA is extremely certain and group protection/particular groups EPA is extremely unfavorable, the quantity grows massive.

Jackson’s 13-game Betrayal Index determine this season ranks 1/3 over the pace decade amongst all QBs whose groups have been no less than 3 video games above .500 at this level (see desk underneath), according to TruMedia.

QB Betrayal Index thru 13 video games, since 2015

QBQB EPAD/ST EPABetrayal/gm

187.1

-56.4

18.7

169.9

-66.6

18.2

132.5

-61

14.9

140.2

-36.1

13.6

129.6

-44.4

13.4

The alternative QBs within the govern 5 — Mahomes in 2018 and 2022, Aaron Rodgers in 2020 and Matt Ryan in 2016 — all gained MVP honors in the ones seasons. Whether or not MVP electorate knew it or no longer, they have been rewarding the quarterbacks whose brilliance helped triumph over weaker aid from their defenses and particular groups. This is Jackson this season.

Ryan could be the most efficient comp for Jackson as a result of his Tremendous Bowl-bound 2016 Falcons additionally began 8-5.

Jackson ranks a number of the NFL’s govern 3 in EPA according to cross play games, passer ranking, landing passes, passing yards and yards according to try. The 132.5 EPA related together with his passes, rushes and scrambles leads the league through a long way. Allen is moment amongst quarterbacks at 94.0, adopted through Goff (86.4), Jayden Daniels (78.3) and Joe Burrow (73.2).

However because the chart underneath presentations, Jackson’s manufacturing (deliberate through EPA) does no longer correlate together with his MVP odds.

It will appear extraordinary if Jackson ignored out on MVP honors this season upcoming nearly lucking into the award closing season, when there weren’t robust applicants. However group effects stay this kind of large a part of the equation, using narratives. Year the Betrayal Index tells us Jackson is if truth be told extra noteceable this season, the elite defensive efficiency that drove Baltimore’s 13-4 document and govern seeding within the AFC one 12 months in the past solid his 2023 candidacy in a extra favorable brightness.

Jackson has long past from bulky MVP favourite to fourth in the back of Allen, Barkley and Goff upcoming his Ravens misplaced two in their pace 3. Allen’s Expenses have no longer misplaced since Oct. 6. Barkley’s Eagles and Goff’s Detroit Lions haven’t misplaced since September (Goff lags for me in MVP attention as a result of I believe he does lower than the others on his personal). Jackson will get a bye this age ahead of completing with the Giants, Steelers, Texans and Browns. He wishes a robust end.

The chart underneath compares Jackson’s EPA thru 13 video games to the 13-game totals for each and every MVP winner since 2000, without reference to place. His manufacturing towers over his 2023 manufacturing presen rating lofty amongst earlier winners.

chart visualization

• Barkley vs. Allen: Quarterbacks are extra reliable than working backs, however there is not any legislation announcing electorate will have to partial a quarterback’s excellent season over a working again’s sensational one.

Allen’s Expenses rank 9th in defensive EPA according to play games and 8th in blended EPA on protection/particular groups. Allen is having an excellent, extremely environment friendly season for a group with an advanced farmland competition. Buffalo now ranks 18th at the Cook dinner Index, ill from 5th closing season, because the Expenses are passing much less ceaselessly on early downs, early in video games. Theirs is a extra complementary emblem of soccer, taking some force off the quarterback.

The whole lot about this Expenses group turns out proper. McDermott and GM Brandon Beane knew how and when to travel on from Stefon Diggs. They patiently remodeled the receiving corps, including Amari Cooper at a cheap worth when there used to be a necessity. Allen is enjoying below keep an eye on. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady has discovered the suitable stability. There’s no drama. Everybody appears to be having amusing. Even McDermott. It’s superior, and turns out relaxing, but it surely feels much less like an incubator for an MVP season than it’s one for a Tremendous Bowl run.

Year Allen is a a lot better MVP candidate this season than Jackson used to be closing season, I nonetheless incline towards Jackson in 2024, and incline towards Barkley within the Negative. 2 spot for now.

Barkley, with 1,499 yards on 246 carries and a 6.1-yard moderate, trails best 1963 MVP Jim Brown (6.6) and 2008 Chris Johnson (6.2) in yards according to raise during the first 13 weeks of a season (minimal 200 carries), according to Professional Soccer Reference.

Barkley ranks 8th since 1946 in dashing yards thru a group’s first 12 video games. 8 of the others within the govern 15 gained MVP honors in the ones years, however none extra not too long ago than Adrian Peterson in 2012.

Maximum speed yds, first 12 video games, 1946-2024

RankParticipantSeasonYards

1

1963

1,677

2

1977

1,642

3

1973

1,584

4

1975

1,575

5

1998

1,566

6

1958

1,527

7

2009

1,509

8

2024

1,499

9

1997

1,469

10

1984

1,452

11

1965

1,450

12

2012

1,446

13

2003

1,442

14

2014

1,427

15

1997

1,427

Operating backs lag in EPA, which does a superior task of measuring how a lot every play games adjustments the expectancies for scoring however does no longer, in my opinion, persistently seize the overall worth of the farmland competition in balancing out an offense, foundation a bodily merit and taking force off quarterbacks. Barkley has been the very best addition to an Eagles group this is 10-2 and now working the ball greater than any group within the league, each total and in one-score video games.

It’s a resurgent 12 months for working backs on the whole, led through Barkley. However I’ll be shocked if a quarterback doesn’t win it in spite of everything.

2. The Pittsburgh Steelers rolled up 520 yards on Cincinnati and were given a 414-yard passing presen from Russell Wilson. What occurs upcoming will have an effect on Wilson, offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and the group.

The Wilson-quarterbacked, Smith-coordinated offense used to be sensational Sunday past a choose six interception enabled through what may have been a penalty for defensive protecting or cross interference. This used to be some of the fertile days for the Steelers’ offense in 305 regular-season and postseason video games with Mike Tomlin as tutor (it additionally helped Tomlin keep the 18th non-losing season of his 18-season occupation).

The place Sunday ranked in 305 Tomlin video games

Offensive StatSunday vs CInTomlin-era rank

Good fortune charge

48.5%

fifth

Explosive cross charge

32.4%

twelfth

First downs

28

twelfth

Yards

520

thirteenth

Issues according to power

3.4

seventeenth

Offensive issues

37

twentieth

EPA

+15.0

twenty second

EPA/play games

+0.23

twenty fifth

In spite of everything, upcoming years of ineptitude on that aspect of the ball, the Steelers seem like they have got a prospect.

The results are large:

• Wilson’s occasion: The Steelers face Cleveland (house), Philadelphia (highway), Baltimore (highway) and Kansas Town (house) over their upcoming 4 video games. That reach will go back the tips Pittsburgh wishes when deciding the best way to walk on a possible promise with Wilson, who used to be a cut price on a one-year, $1.2 million trade in this 12 months presen nonetheless accumulating $37.8 million from Denver.

The Steelers don’t negotiate pristine agreements all over the season and appear prone to let the condition play games out. Wilson’s promise condition ceaselessly was information all over his Seattle days. That is going on once more.

“They took the last two quarterbacks available for $1 million apiece last offseason and were winning with Justin Fields, so they are not going to be strong-armed,” an exec from some other group stated.

Wilson seems headed towards a payday that used to be disagree certain factor when Denver immune him.

“If he goes to the playoffs and they win a playoff game and lose to the Chiefs in a close one, you are telling me he is not going to get Daniel Jones-type contract offers around the league?” the exec added.

Wilson, who finished 29 of 38 passes for 414 yards and 3 touchdowns within the 44-38 victory over the Bengals, may just get greater than that if he effectively navigates the next stretch of harder defenses and the Steelers split thru within the postseason.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

The Steelers wanted their offense to hold them. Russell Wilson spoke back the decision

Wilson is thriving with a group that desires to play games the best way his former group, Seattle, sought after to play games early in his occupation. The combo of difficult protection, working the ball and Wilson making large performs downfield used to be all the time a profitable one.

The Seahawks misplaced the facility to play games that approach in Wilson’s ultimate seasons with the group as their protection and run competition sun-baked. Wilson sought a extra position within the equation when forcing his business from the Seahawks. Now, he’s were given the suitable group framework to win the best way he gained way back, even supposing he’s much less succesful as a runner. Sunday’s efficiency urged he can even aid a group conserve era in a high-scoring competition.

• Arthur Smith’s occasion: Wilson turns out like a just right have compatibility for Smith’s offense. What if Smith isn’t calling the performs upcoming season? Smith reportedly won’t pursue a prospect to tutor his alma mater, North Carolina, however he certainly would like to grow to be an NFL head tutor once more.

“I think Arthur Smith will be a candidate for a head-coaching job,” some other exec stated. “I think we are going to see the second-time head coach come back in vogue. Washington is going to be a test case for that with Dan Quinn getting a second chance. There are quite a few guys who fell out of favor — Matt Nagy being one, Arthur Smith being another — who maybe were tied to the wrong quarterback in their previous stops and will say, ‘Look at what I’ve done as an offensive coordinator in my new place.’”

Quinn used to be clearly extra a hit in his earlier head-coaching prevent, taking the Atlanta Falcons to a Tremendous Bowl, however the normal level is one fairly a couple of pros percentage at this level within the season.

• Steelers outlook: The Steelers have no longer gained a playoff competition since Jan. 15, 2017, after they edged the Alex Smith-quarterbacked Chiefs, 18-16, within the divisional around. Twenty-three alternative franchises have gained playoff video games since nearest, together with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cleveland Browns, who’ve every overwhelmed Pittsburgh within the postseason in that span.

If that drought does no longer finish this season, and if Smith does land a training task in other places, what’s going to Pittsburgh’s potentialities be on offense, without or with Wilson again on a dearer promise? It’s taking to be an enchanting upcoming couple of months.

3. With the Inexperienced Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings profitable, the NFC North moved nearer to turning into probably the most dominant department since Roman Gabriel used to be the reigning MVP.

The NFC North entered Presen 13 as probably the most dominant because the NFL realigned into 8 four-team sections in 2022, as deliberate through level margin according to competition in opposition to groups from alternative sections.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Best possible department since realignment? Striking the NFC North’s dominance in context

With Inexperienced Bay dealing with Miami 30-17 and Minnesota edging Arizona 23-22 in Presen 13, a query got here to thoughts: Is that this probably the most dominant department since, say, the 1970 AFL-NFL merger?

The solution: Sure.

I’ve expanded my analysis from closing age to judge all sections since 1970 through PPG margin in non-division video games during the first 13 weeks of a season. The 2024 NFC North ranks first through that measure (9.36 issues according to competition) and simply forward of the 1984 AFC West — led through John Elway’s Denver Broncos and Howie Lengthy’s Los Angeles Raiders — for moment in win charge (.778).

scatter visualization

Tapping or soaring over any information issues at the chart above will establish the 12 months/department, its PPG margin and its win charge in non-division video games.

Supremacy sections thru Presen 13, 1970-2024

RankCategoryPPG Margin

1

2024 NFC North

+9.36

2

2013 NFC West

+8.32

3

1976 AFC Central

+8.13

4

2008 NFC East

+7.53

5

2002 NFC South

+7.29

6

2005 AFC West

+7.13

7

1984 AFC West

+7.11

8

2008 NFC South

+7.06

9

2022 NFC East

+6.54

9

2004 AFC East

+6.54

The 2013 NFC West ranks moment to the 2024 NFC North in PPG margin so far in a season. 3rd playground belongs to the 1976 AFC Central, that includes the Metal Curtain-era Pittsburgh Steelers, the Ken Anderson-quarterbacked Cincinnati Bengals, the Brian Sipe-led Cleveland Browns and the Bum Phillips-coached Houston Oilers.

The tide Lions (11-1), Vikings (10-2) and Packers (9-3) have left in the back of Chicago (4-8), one explanation why the Bears fired tutor Matt Eberflus.

The chart underneath presentations how Eberflus and the surviving NFC North coaches have carried out since taking up their groups. The Packers’ Matt LaFleur and the Vikings’ Kevin O’Connell have by no means been underneath .500 all over their tenures.

chart visualization

The Lions’ Dan Campbell crash base at 15 video games underneath .500 two seasons in the past. He grew to become it round with a 15-9 victory over the Packers in Presen 9 of 2022, adopted the upcoming age through a 31-30 victory over the Bears. Campbell is now 35-27-1 (.563) with Detroit. The Bears’ tide six-game wasting streak dropped Eberflus to 18 video games underneath .500, triggering the exchange.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

The Bears in spite of everything fired Matt Eberflus. However he misplaced the store room way back

4. Right here’s what stood out in regards to the end-of-game failures for the Bears and Raiders (it wasn’t the methods).

Bears tutor Matt Eberflus got here below hearth — and misplaced his task — upcoming failing to significance a timeout as the sport clock expired together with his group trailing at Detroit on Thanksgiving.

Raiders tutor Antonio Pierce got here below hearth one presen next upcoming preventing the clock with a spike, nearest seeking to run occasion off the clock or travel the ball, best to undergo a handover on a untimely snap, with out making an attempt a go-ahead discipline target at Kansas Town.

There are lots of tactics to lead those late-game conditions. Usually, groups must do what they’ve practiced, as a result of execution is such an notable variable. Right here’s what stood out about those crucial late-game failures from a extra world viewpoint:

• Inexperience: Chicago’s head tutor, offensive coordinator and quarterback have been running in combination in the ones roles for best the 1/3 occasion. The Raiders’ head tutor, offensive coordinator and quarterback have been running in combination in the ones roles for the primary occasion. Each groups modified coordinators not too long ago. Each have green quarterbacks. Chicago’s Caleb Williams used to be making his twelfth get started. The Raiders’ Aidan O’Connell used to be making his sixteenth. Each have been dealing with 10-1 groups at the highway in chaotic, boisterous environments. A lot may just cross fallacious, and did.

• Kicker issues: Each groups have been positioning themselves for tying (Chicago) or go-ahead (Las Vegas) field-goal tries within the ultimate seconds. Each had explanation why to fret about executing the ones kicks. Each groups transferred pressure from suffering kickers onto green quarterbacks and fledgling offenses.

Chicago had field-goal tries prevented in every of its earlier two video games. If the Bears held onto that ultimate timeout so the discipline target group may just perform with out the force of a working clock, the method got here at a worth.

For the Raiders, kicker Daniel Carlson had ignored 3 kicks already within the Kansas Town freezing (the Chiefs had additionally ignored one). Gaining a couple of extra yards may have grew to become a 50-yard struggle right into a 45-yarder.

• Explanations revealing: Eberflus stated he do not have performed the rest in a different way. He were given into one of the most main points in the back of the method however used to be no longer convincing. Pierce urged he used to be simply having a look to throw incomplete to shoot occasion off the clock at the ultimate play games, however that didn’t seem to be the one attention, given the best way the offense used to be running to that time, and aligning ahead of the fateful ultimate snap.

In each instances, the coaches didn’t seem comfy, let rejected authoritative, when discussing their dealing with of those crucial conditions.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

How the Raiders fumbled away a yellowish alternative to overcome the Chiefs

5. The Miami Dolphins have a 1-10 document of their closing 11 video games in opposition to groups that had profitable data at kickoff. Are they comfortable? The solution could be hiding in unsophisticated visual.

The Dolphins’ 30-17 defeat to Inexperienced Bay at Lambeau Grassland strengthened nerve-racking (to the Dolphins) narratives. This used to be their twelfth consecutive defeat when the temperature used to be 40 levels or decrease. It additionally used to be their tenth defeat of their closing 11 video games in opposition to groups that had profitable data.

The cold-weather streak isn’t as fascinating as it dates to January 2017, lengthy ahead of Mike McDaniel was tutor, and as the stretch comprises best highway video games, together with playoffs. Indianapolis and Carolina are a blended 0-15 in in a similar fashion freezing highway video games over the similar span. Tampa Bay and Unutilized Orleans are a blended 8-1 in them. Who is aware of why?

The Dolphins’ 1-10 document of their closing 11 regular-season video games in opposition to groups with profitable data issues extra as a result of all befell below McDaniel. Nobody desires to be recognized for such futility.

“This tells me they have a bit of a front runner mentality and when things get tough they don’t have it in their DNA to handle adversity as well as some of the top-tier teams,” former Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, now an analyst for Amazon’s Thursday night time protection, wrote on X. “Maybe there is a different explanation but they usually play very well against opponents that are under .500.”

The Dolphins’ 17-16 regular-season document since 2022 Presen 15 comprises:

• 12-5 (.706) in opposition to wasting groups (Sixth-best)

• 4-1 (.800) in opposition to .500 groups (T-4th)

• 1-10 (.091) in opposition to profitable groups (thirty first)

We will be able to put aside one of the vital losses to a profitable group (24-3 at Seattle in Presen 3) as a result of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa didn’t play games. The ten extra video games seem underneath, ranked from ultimate to worst level differential for the Dolphins. Notice that Miami used to be 1-1 when liked in those video games, 0-7 as an underdog and 0-1 in a pick-em competition in opposition to the Chiefs at a impartial web site in Germany.

Season-WkOpponentoutcomeUltimate Margin

2023-16

W, 22-20

+2

2022-15

L, 32-29

-3

2024-9

L, 30-27

-3

2023-9

L, 21-14

-7

2023-18

L, 21-14

-7

2024-13

L, 30-17

-13

2023-7

L, 31-17

-14

2024-2

L, 31-10

-21

2023-4

L, 48-20

-28

2023-17

L, 56-19

-37

Seven have been in opposition to groups that have been no less than 4 video games above .500. Six of the ones have been at the highway (together with the only in opposition to Kansas Town in Germany). The alternative 31 NFL groups have, on moderate, performed 1.9 of those fighters at the highway over the similar length. That’s one key to fixing the puzzle. Notice, additionally, that 5 of the defeats have been in opposition to Buffalo, together with two when the Expenses have been no less than 4 video games above .500.

Fitzpatrick’s belief of the Dolphins as front-runners who try to take care of agony nonetheless carries weight. The Dolphins have coated the purpose unfold simply 3 times presen posting that 1-9 document in opposition to profitable groups with Tagovailoa within the lineup. They misplaced through 37 to Baltimore, 28 and 21 to Buffalo, 14 to Philadelphia and 13 to Inexperienced Bay. That’s relating to.

6. Two-minute drill: Seattle overcame a traditionally sinister presen on kickoffs and kick returns

The Seahawks netted -19.2 EPA on kickoffs and kickoff returns in opposition to the Unutilized York Jets on Sunday.

How sinister used to be that?

It used to be the worst single-game efficiency on kickoffs and kickoff returns in 6,641 regular-season and postseason video games since 2000, according to TruMedia. That’s 13,282nd out of 13,282 particular person group performances on those performs, as deliberate through EPA.

And Seattle nonetheless gained the sport, 26-21!

The desk underneath lists the ten performs that blended to construct the traditionally sinister EPA for Seattle on kickoffs and kickoff returns.

Seattle KO/KOR Play gamesEPA

99-yard KOR TD allowed

-5.9

KOR misplaced fumble, recovered at SEA 27

-5.3

KOR misplaced fumble, recovered at SEA 38

-4.3

45-yard KOR allowed to NYJ 44

-1.3

36-yard KR allowed to NYJ 38

-1.0

Muffed KOR, recovered at personal 12

-0.6

28-yard KOR allowed to NYJ 31

-0.6

KO touchback

-0.4

30-yard KOR allowed to NYJ 28

-0.3

KOR touchback

+0.5

Totals

-19.2

The Seahawks may just no longer have gained the sport with out a few former Jets draft alternatives.

Leonard Williams’ 92-yard interception go back for a landing (+11.2 EPA) used to be probably the most pivotal play games of the sport.

Williams, drafted Negative. 6 through the Jets in 2015, added two sacks utility a blended 1.5 EPA on Unutilized York’s ultimate power.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Leonard Williams is helping Seahawks depart Jets, bolstering playoff hopes

The ones 3 performs and the difference level he prevented (+0.9 EPA) offset 72 p.c of the EPA misplaced on the ones kick/kick go back miscues (+13.8 of -19.2). Williams mainly took over the sport. As an inside defensive lineman, this is very tricky to do. His efforts allowed Williams and Seattle quarterback Geno Smith, a 2013 Jets second-round selection, to experience their homecoming.

Led through Williams, who used to be particularly dominant all over a Presen 12 victory over Arizona, Seattle ranks Negative. 1 in defensive EPA according to play games since Presen 9, a span of 4 video games. The Seahawks ranked twentieth thru Presen 8.

• Chargers protection: Ahead of Sunday, Kirk Cousins had by no means thrown 4 or extra interceptions with no landing cross in any of his 160 occupation begins, counting playoffs. That modified when the Chargers picked him off 4 occasions with out permitting a scoring cross all over their 17-13 victory over Cousins’ Atlanta Falcons. This used to be an encouraging efficiency for a much-improved Chargers protection that had sagged in opposition to stiffer pageant in contemporary weeks.

The Chargers at the moment are 3 video games right into a five-game stretch in opposition to extremely paid veteran quarterbacks. Joe Burrow (Presen 11) and Lamar Jackson (Presen 12) led offenses that produced extra EPA in opposition to the Chargers than any others had all season. Cousins used to be in a position to generating in a similar fashion, however the Chargers close him ill, whole with Tarheeb Nonetheless’s choose six.

The desk underneath lists the Chargers’ opposing quarterbacks chronologically, with the tide five-game stretch marked through borders. Workforce offensive EPA seems within the ultimate column. The Chargers wanted this efficiency Sunday.

Inauguration QBs and group off. EPA vs. LAC

Nearest up for this Chargers’ protection, which ranks fourth in EPA according to play games: Patrick Mahomes, whose Chiefs defeated the Chargers 17-10 in Presen 4, regardless of being held to -6.8 EPA, through a long way a season worst for Kansas Town.

• About Cousins: What if the Chargers’ efficiency in opposition to Cousins stated extra about Cousins and the Falcons’ offense, which hasn’t crowned 17 issues in any of 3 successive defeats in opposition to groups with robust defenses? The overall rankings of those losses: 20-17 at Unutilized Orleans, 38-6 at Denver and now, upcoming a bye, 17-13 at house in opposition to the Chargers.

The Falcons plan to stay with Cousins rather of turning to rookie first-round choose Michael Penix Jr. That’s best truthful, with a travel to Minnesota, the place Cousins posted a 50-37-1 (.574) origination document, upcoming at the agenda for the Falcons. How lengthy will the group keep affected person?

• Kingsbury’s reprieve: The Washington Commanders’ offense used to be again all over a 42-19 victory over the Tennessee Titans, which means offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury gained’t have to listen to as a lot about his gadgets declining in the second one halves of seasons. The totals: 463 yards, 29 first downs, 64 p.c conversion charge on 1/3 ill (9 of 14) and 6 touchdowns. All of it added as much as the Commanders’ third-best offensive EPA competition of the season and ultimate since Presen 5 in opposition to Cleveland. It used to be a superior approach for Kingsbury and the Commanders to go into their bye.

chart visualization

• Bryce Younger’s resurgence: The Carolina Panthers have suffered many brutal defeats in contemporary seasons. The way in which they fell in extra time to Tampa Bay, with Chuba Hubbard wasting a fumble when Carolina used to be in field for the profitable field-goal struggle in extra time, used to be simply painful. It used to be no longer brutal — no longer within the context of the place this franchise has been. The Panthers have grow to be aggressive. Their second-year quarterback, Bryce Younger, seems to be extra viable. Take a look at Younger’s splits within the desk underneath. The second one column options his manufacturing since coming back from his benching.

Bryce Younger splits

Get started #First 18Closing 5

W-L

2-16

2-3

Off. PPG

11.2

21.4

PPG margin

-12.8

-3.2

Yards/competition

173.4

216.4

Yards/att.

5.4

6.4

TD-INT

11-13

6-3

Score

70.9

83.5

QB EPA/competition

-7.0

+0.2

EPA/cross play games

-0.24

+0.01

Sack charge

10.4%

4.0%

Explosive cross charge

9.3%

15.1%

Avg. occasion to throw

3.03

2.75

• Lawrence’s trauma: The crash Houston’s Azeez Al-Shaair placed on Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence left Lawrence exhibiting frightening concussion symptoms.

It used to be just right to look Lawrence used to be feeling higher next Sunday.

Officers ejected Al-Shaair from the sport. The league will probably droop him below regulations in playground to offer protection to quarterbacks after they slide — regulations that didn’t exist for lots of the NFL’s historical past.

(Photograph of Saquon Barkley: Patrick Smith / Getty Pictures)

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