One of the crucial expected showdowns of the season is at the docket this age, as UConn and USC face off in a rematch of the 2024 Elite 8 in Hartford, Conn. Each groups boast top-10 offenses and defenses, in step with Her Hoop Stats, which usually signifies a countrywide name contender.
All through the preseason, this recreation was once billed as a combat between the 2 projected favorites for nationwide Participant of the Life: Paige Bueckers and JuJu Watkins. Alternatively, every other participant has usurped the 2 in that dialog, the similar person who helped ship the Huskies and the Trojans their lone losses of the season. Each Bueckers and Watkins have been outplayed via Hannah Hidalgo of their matchups towards Notre Dame, as Hidalgo has earned pole place within the NPOY race.
GO DEEPER
Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo has UConn’s quantity (once more)
It’s a long way too early within the season to reach at any conclusions, however to have 3 avid gamers hanging in combination such cast circumstances is a stark distinction to how the race has borne out over the ultimate two seasons. With Lauren Betts and Madison Booker additionally nationwide name hopefuls (UCLA and Texas have top-10 offenses and defenses, too), Hidalgo would possibly no longer also be the favourite for for much longer. The relative parity amongst groups atop the ratings additionally extends to the most efficient avid gamers within the nation.
That provides much more intrigue to a marquee matchup between UConn and USC. Along with getting a pre-tournament check, each and every group’s superstar may just utility a bulky efficiency to produce up garden on Hidalgo.
Dropped out: Iowa (21)
Virtually well-known: Iowa, Utah, Vanderbilt
3 emerging groups
Southern California
Hour Kiki Iriafen adjusts to her offensive position at USC, her frontcourt spouse Rayah Marshall has been increasing her talents. Marshall all the time has been a dominant defensive presence, and that hasn’t modified as a senior. Her restrain share is within the 99th percentile nationally, and she or he deters much more photographs. Fighters are capturing a preposterous 23.9 p.c with Marshall as the principle defender, as she will be able to preserve the publish and defend garden at the perimeter. USC’s protection is 16.7 issues in step with 100 possessions higher with Marshall at the court docket.
However Marshall has change into extra flexible offensively this season. Taking part in nearest to Iriafen, who excels related the basket, has pressured Marshall to start out possessions at the perimeter. Marshall isn’t precisely a warning to blast from lengthy distance, as she’s made two discipline objectives outdoor of the paint all season (even though a kind of did come towards Elon on Sunday). Alternatively, her pressure recreation has stepped forward, and that allows her to get into the lane, faint the protection and unload the ball off to Iriafen. Take a look at how Marshall creates the straightforward search for Iriafen on those two possessions, the second coming next an indicator restrain at the alternative finish.
As a middle, she has the third-most assists for USC, at the back of simplest Watkins and Talia von Oelhoffen. Marshall had a below-average assist-to-turnover ratio her first two seasons at USC and a below-average assists price ultimate 12 months, however she has now change into some of the environment friendly frontcourt passers. The Trojans want that skill from Marshall to manufacture range for Iriafen to paintings. If the ones two can magnify each and every alternative, that raises USC’s offensive ceiling.
Kentucky
Georgia Amoore’s 3-point capturing has fallen off of a cliff this season, because the profession 35.3 p.c shooter is making 1 / 4 of her makes an attempt from past the arc. Because the alpha and omega of Kentucky’s offense, Amoore must be a person scoring warning for the Wildcats to win video games towards excellent warring parties. Towards North Carolina two weeks in the past, Amoore neglected all 5 of her 3-point makes an attempt, and Kentucky was once routed via 19 issues.
However it sounds as if Amoore is rediscovering her groove. Within the Wildcats’ two wins ultimate age, the fifth-year preserve shot 5 of 14 from deep, a vital growth from her vile begin to the 12 months, and she or he was once in particular cunning within the midrange towards Purdue, as Kentucky gained its first true street recreation of 2024-25. The Wildcats ran Amoore off the ball, the usage of her because the screener in some inverted pick-and-rolls; she was once ready to show and face towards a larger defender and utility her velocity to mud them on tips on how to the ring.
been amusing to observe Kentucky exercise how they wish to assault zones this season
Truly excellent offensive group, however has gotten gummed up via zone slightly to start out the 12 months
Beloved the counter the day prior to this towards Purdue. Jerk the ball out of Amoore’s fingers, and get her to the nail pic.twitter.com/r8mMxHprMM
— Mark Schindler (@MG_Schindler) December 15, 2024
Kentucky were given off to a gradual get started towards the Boilermakers, scoring 2 issues within the first seven-plus mins. Amoore nearest scored 13 issues within the nearest 10 mins to turn the early dearth right into a 3-point govern. Amoore has already been an impressive ground common and playmaker for the Wildcats, averaging a career-best 7.2 assists in step with recreation. Kentucky may just produce some noise within the SEC if she provides the capturing.
Georgia Tech
The ultimate unbeaten group within the ACC is Georgia Tech, an consequence nobody would have predicted entering the season. The Yellow Jackets have feature wins over South Dakota Condition, Oregon and now at the street towards North Carolina, once they have been an absolute buzzsaw within the first part.
Georgia Tech works sun-baked to win the ownership combat. The Yellow Jackets assault the offensive glass and don’t flip the ball over, which leads to 12.8 extra shot makes an attempt in step with recreation than their warring parties. With that margin, they wouldn’t even must blast all that smartly to win, however their efficient field-goal share ranks within the 86th percentile nationally — thus the 11-0 document, which is the most efficient get started in program historical past. Additionally they don’t depend difference on any person avid gamers; seven Yellow Jackets common no less than 20 mins in step with recreation however none exceeds 30, and so they’re fourth amongst energy convention groups in bench issues at the back of South Carolina, Texas and Tennessee.
What stood out of their win towards the Tar Heels was once that not anything gave the impression anomalous. They put a quantity of drive at the rim within the part court docket and in transition, with Tonie Morgan and Zoesha Smith being excellent at scoring within the paint. Dani Carnegie is as excellent as any freshman within the ACC and is threatening a 50/40/90 capturing season age the group in scoring. They’re energetic on protection and accelerate warring parties, despite the fact that they don’t power handovers at an elite price. And so they play games sun-baked, which is the place the intensity is useful. Then 11 video games, it’s future to rub away the ones preseason tasks. Georgia Tech is now not a fluke and a long way higher than the Tenth-best group on this convention.
Two falling groups
Texas
That is nitpicking for the Longhorns next they gained two video games via a blended 69 issues this age, together with at the street towards Richmond, which is twenty fifth within the NET. However one thing about Texas’ offense is nagging at me.
Madison Booker is the one constant scoring warning, and her offense is reliant on some tricky photographs, which, to her credit score, she makes at a prime clip. However the Longhorns are a modest isolation-heavy and don’t whisk many 3-pointers, which limits their upside towards the most efficient groups. Preferably, Aaliyah Moore or Laila Phelia could be that secondary offensive power at the back of Booker, however neither has popped this season. It doesn’t assistance that the paint is supremely crowded, much more so now that Rori Harmon — who isn’t thought to be a shooter — has changed Shaylee Gonzales within the origination lineup.
Towards the Spiders, Texas pressured 24 handovers and took 20 extra discipline objectives however gained via simplest 10. It resembled its season-ending loss to NC Condition in 2023-24, when the Longhorns additionally had a plus-20 discipline target benefit, however misplaced via 10. Although complicated stats say Texas is excelling on offense, the method seems to be too difficult, and it’s one thing to hold an sight on because the SEC slate starts.
Iowa
The Hawkeyes hold hanging on a display, however they want to determine how one can related out video games. A age in the past, they unraveled within the fourth quarter towards Tennessee, surrendering a 14-1 run of their first lack of the season. Sunday towards Michigan Condition, Iowa blew a 9-point govern and allowed a 14-0 fourth-quarter run. The ones two video games did sandwich a Hawkeyes comeback towards Iowa Condition, however that finishing was once extra in regards to the Cyclones’ struggles than Iowa.
The handovers are getting out of keep an eye on for the Hawkeyes, who’re giving the ball away on 25 p.c of possessions within the seize. This has come in spite of Iowa’s steadily going mini unwell the stretch and enjoying with extra ballhandlers. Rather, the Hawkeyes have struggled to keep an eye on ownership and compromised their protection within the procedure, because the lineups with Hannah Stuelke on the 5 don’t get plethora stops. One of the most giveaways are simply comical, corresponding to an errant move that landed in professor Jan Jensen’s fingers within the ultimate length towards Michigan Condition.
Iowa has some more youthful avid gamers this season, however the handovers are coming from their veterans — Lucy Olsen had seven towards the Spartans, and fellow senior Kylie Feuerbach had 5. Stuelke and senior Addison O’Grady are combining to common 4.9 handovers from the frontcourt spots. With the Hawkeyes’ fast moving taste, some errors are anticipated, however this degree of carelessness can’t proceed within the Obese Ten.
(Photograph of Rayah Marshall: Meg Oliphant / Getty Pictures)
