Russell Wilson enjoying for a pristine assurance with the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks a number of the summit quarterback storylines heading into the 2024 NFL season’s ultimate weeks. There are lots of others of passion, which makes this a beneficial era to test in on all 32 quarterback conditions.
As I generally do that era of yr, I’ve grouped all 32 quarterbacks into buckets in line with how their groups will have to really feel about them, from “Committed Without Reservation” at one finish to “We’re Looking For A Way Out” on the alternative.
The Fresh York Giants’ flow starter (Drew Lock) isn’t indexed, however their former one (Daniel Jones) does seem. I’ve incorporated assurance period and wage rank, together with the place every ranks in EPA in keeping with go play games a number of the 40 quarterbacks with a minimum of 100 go makes an attempt this season.
1. Dedicated With out Reservation
We’ve got top-five QBs of their primes, signed to long-term agreements.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas Town Chiefs
Signed via: 2031 | APY Rank: 12 | QB EPA Rank: 10/40
There’s been a fascinating statistical tradeoff for Mahomes in fresh weeks. Then tossing 8 landing passes with 9 interceptions within the first seven video games, the TD-INT ratio has flipped to 11-2 in 5 next video games. His sack price has additionally jumped from 5.1 p.c to 9.0 p.c, year his price of passes gaining greater than 15 yards has dropped. Now not that any of this stuff have an effect on how the Chiefs really feel about their quarterback, who leads the league in fourth-quarter comebacks (4) and game-winning drives (six), in keeping with Professional Soccer Reference.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Expenses
Signed via: 2028 | APY Rank: 14 | QB EPA Rank: 4/40
Allen has turn out to be the having a bet favourite for MVP honors in fresh weeks and is the entirety the Expenses was hoping they have been getting once they traded as much as draft him in 2018. His sack price has fallen and his explosive go price has risen throughout all 3 offensive coordinators right through his seven seasons.
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Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Signed via: 2027 | APY Rank: 8 | QB EPA Rank: 1/40
The Ravens are successful the large guess they made on Jackson once they signed him to an extension earlier than the 2023 season. Jackson’s manufacturing, in moderate earlier than he signed the trade in, has reached pristine highs. He has 41 extra general touchdowns than handovers since signing the trade in, fasten with Allen for the most efficient differential within the league. Jackson ranked twenty first (+13) around the 2021-22 seasons.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Signed via: 2029 | APY Rank: 4 | QB EPA Rank: 6/40
Burrow handed for 820 yards with 9 touchdowns and one interception in 41-38 and 35-34 defeats to Baltimore this season, taking pictures the essence of this Bengals season. Cincinnati ranks 5th in offensive EPA in keeping with play games however most effective thirtieth at the defensive aspect. That’s the greatest differential between offensive and defensive scores via Occasion 13. The alternative groups with indistinguishable disparities come with the 8-5 Ravens (-24), 8-5 Commanders (-24) and 6-6 Buccaneers (-23).
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Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Signed via: 2029 | APY Rank: 7 | QB EPA Rank: 21/40
Herbert used to be 5th in Quarterback Tiers vote casting earlier than the 2023 and 2024 seasons in spite of slipping from Tier 1 to Tier 2 getting into 2024. He’s throwing fewer passes and taking extra sacks for a crew this is successful on protection. It’s tough to believe schoolmaster Jim Harbaugh straying too a ways from his run-heavy philosophy.
2. Dedicated And Hoping The Sky Is The Prohibit
We expect our younger QBs can turn out to be stars (and there’s some proof to end up we’re proper).
Jordan Love, Inexperienced Bay Packers
Signed via: 2028 | APY Rank: 3 | QB EPA Rank: 13/40
Evaluating Like to predecessor Aaron Rodgers would appear unfair if Love weren’t foundation his profession with indistinguishable manufacturing.
Rodgers via 27 begins: 64 p.c completions, 7.8 yards in keeping with struggle, 50 landing passes, 18 interceptions
Love via 27 begins: 63 p.c completions, 7.4 yards in keeping with struggle, 51 landing passes, 23 interceptions
The principle variations: Rodgers added extra EPA on scrambles and misplaced extra EPA on sacks, year Love has misplaced extra on interceptions.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Signed via: 2026 (now not counting fifth-year possibility) | APY Rank: 26 | QB EPA Rank: 25/40
To what level does Stroud’s moderate in manufacturing from his rookie season mirror a weakened offensive series and accidents at receiver?
That will likely be a key query heading into then season for the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the While.
3. Dedicated And Content material
We’ve got veteran quarterbacks signed for the long run and are proud of the condition.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Signed via: 2028 | APY Rank: 6 | QB EPA Rank: 3/40
Goff is proving to be a splendid good-team quarterback.
Now in his fourth season with Detroit, Goff is replicating his 2018 Tremendous Bowl season with the Rams via 12 video games, except for he’s throwing the ball much less continuously and throwing it shorter, this means that a better of completion price and less explosive beneficial properties.
The entirety else is set the similar: the won-lost report (11-1 each years), the passer ranking (109.9 after, 109.0 now) and the increased yards in keeping with struggle (9.1 after, 8.8 now).
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Signed via: 2028 | APY Rank: 9 | QB EPA Rank: 12/40
The Eagles are 31-4 during the first 12 video games of the pace 3 seasons with Hurts within the lineup. The large extra this season is how a lot more Philadelphia is leaning on its protection and farmland competition, led through Saquon Barkley.
Hurts, in his first season with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, has tried 304 passes right through the 10-2 get started this season, ill from 403 right through the crew’s 10-2 get started final season. That’s a loose from 33.5 makes an attempt in keeping with competition to twenty-five.3 in keeping with competition.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Signed via: 2028 | APY Rank: 10 | QB EPA Rank: 14/40
Murray turns out to have matured and is not outlined through the “homework clause” Arizona put into (and then got rid of from) the assurance extension he signed in July 2022.
Then lacking portions of the pace two seasons with a torn ACL, he has began the primary 12 video games of a season for the primary era since 2020, his moment yr within the league.
One large extra from after to now: He averaged a career-high 7.6 rushes and scrambles in keeping with competition after, in comparison to a career-low 3.9 this season. Year he leads the league in ESPN’s Overall QBR metric, groups are blitzing Murray a lot more successfully than in fresh seasons.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Signed via: 2028 | APY Rank: 1 | QB EPA Rank: 28/40
The Cowboys have had a successful report six occasions in seven seasons when Prescott began a minimum of part the video games and not had a dropping season (they have been 8-8 in 2019). However the crew fell off in 2024, Prescott suffered a season-ending hamstring trauma and his pristine assurance is ready to rely $89 million in opposition to the cap in 2025 — his age-32 season — making the month glance murkier.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Signed via: 2026 | APY Rank: 18 | QB EPA Rank: 11/40
Mayfield has discovered a house in Tampa and is offering a cast go back at the Buccaneers’ three-year, $100 million funding in him. Since becoming a member of Tampa Bay final season, he ranks tenth in EPA in keeping with go play games and is fasten with the Ravens’ Jackson for the league supremacy in landing passes (53).
The Buccaneers have a mediocre report this season (6-6) for the reason that protection ranks twenty ninth in EPA in keeping with play games. Mayfield has posted career-high totals via 12 video games for passing yards (3,034), passing touchdowns (25), passer ranking (101.3) and EPA in keeping with go play games (0.11). He’s completed it for an offense that ranks 5th in issues in keeping with competition (27.2) and 6th in EPA in keeping with play games.
4. Dedicated And Content material, With Deny Promises
We adore our QBs and feature them signed past this season to trade in containing modest or not more assured cash. This provides us extra flexibility to imagine our choices.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Signed via: 2026 | APY Rank: 15 | QB EPA Rank: 17/40
When Stafford sought a pristine assurance final offseason, the Rams gave him $40 million totally assured, with most effective $4 million in promises then this season. That provides the crew better flexibility to progress on from Stafford if some mixture of moment/trauma/efficiency leads the Rams to imagine alternative choices. Stafford rest the most suitable choice now. His 3 game-winning drives are his maximum since having 4 in 2021.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Signed via: 2025 | APY Rank: 19 | QB EPA Rank: 23/40
The way in which this Seahawks season has performed out beneath pristine offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, with the crew skewing closely towards the go and Kenneth Walker III rating thirtieth amongst working backs in quicken yards, the point of interest may fall extra at the total way than it falls at the individual taking snaps from middle.
Regardless of the case, Smith rest beneath assurance for 2025 beneath phrases favorable to the crew, as his $24.8 million in repayment isn’t assured. That provides the Seahawks flexibility in the event that they make a decision to imagine alternative choices.
Smith had 30 landing passes with 11 interceptions in his first season because the Seahawks’ starter (2022). He has 13 and 12, respectively, for an offense that has struggled to search out consistency thus far this season.
5. Dedicated With Considerations
We signed our QB to a dear long-term extension however can’t really feel splendid about it, for various causes.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Signed via: 2028 | APY Rank: 5 | QB EPA Rank: 2/40
The Dolphins struggled to serve as when Tagovailoa used to be now not to be had to them, pushing again in opposition to perceptions that the quarterback used to be most commonly a manufactured from schoolmaster Mike McDaniel’s scheme and the crew’s elite weaponry.
The crew has averaged 0.09 EPA in keeping with play games on offense with Tagovailoa, when compared with -0.32 in keeping with play games with out him. That’s the extra between being a top-five offense this season and being greater than two times as unholy because the last-ranked one (Cleveland at -0.15).
Tagovailoa and the Dolphins paid a weighty value for finding out extra concerning the quarterback’s worth. The concussion he suffered in opposition to Buffalo in Occasion 2 spurred any other around of questions on his long-term condition and viability as a quarterback.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Signed via: 2030 | APY Rank: 2 | QB EPA Rank: 27/40
There’s modest proof Lawrence can triumph over tricky conditions, or that the Jaguars can aid him plethora to safeguard luck, however the crew nonetheless entered right into a $275 million extension with him earlier than the season, when there used to be incorrect looming closing date to take action.
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Right here’s the place Lawrence ranks in EPA in keeping with go play games: twenty fifth since 2021, twentieth since 2022, twenty fifth since 2023 and twenty fourth this season. He’ll most probably stay a number of the summit 5 in moderate annual wage for years yet to come. Can he near the distance?
6. Dedicated Till Deny Longer Dedicated
Our veteran starters might be at the approach out, for various causes.
Derek Carr, Fresh Orleans Saints
Signed via: 2026 | APY Rank: 16 | QB EPA Rank: 9/40
The Saints’ then schoolmaster will most probably aid make a decision what path the crew follows at quarterback then this season. Freeing Carr might be tough given the crew’s salary-cap condition, however all choices would appear to be at the desk because the membership units a pristine path. Designating him a post-June 1 let go would build probably the most sense if the Saints make a decision to scale down ties.
Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
Signed via: 2027 | APY Rank: 13 | QB EPA Rank: 16/40
Cousins might be working out of possibilities to opposite a contemporary slide in manufacturing. How lengthy earlier than first-round rookie Michael Penix Jr. turns into the most suitable choice? It kind of feels becoming that this profession crossroads has Cousins turning back Minnesota in opposition to his former crew in Occasion 14. Right here’s hoping Vikings schoolmaster Kevin O’Connell is miked up right through pregame, a minimum of.
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How lengthy earlier than Penix takes over from Cousins because the Falcons’ starter? (Kevin Sabitus / Related Press)
Aaron Rodgers, Fresh York Jets
Signed via: 2025 | APY Rank: 17 | QB EPA Rank: 29/40
Rodgers’ assurance has a $35 million possibility for 2025. It’s tough to peer the Jets exercising it when a franchise refresh turns out suitable and Rodgers, who simply became 41, has misplaced athleticism.
As disappointing as this Jets season has been from a quarterback point of view, this could be worse: The crew’s 88.2 passer ranking is its second-best via 12 video games since 2008.
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7. Dedicated, However At What Price?
Our QB has earned an extension, however fresh occasions have raised questions on the associated fee.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Signed via: 2025 | APY Rank: 84 | QB EPA Rank: 7/40
Purdy, with not up to $3 million in profession income, has a $1.1 million wage in 2024. He’s been the NFL’s greatest cut price over the pace two-plus seasons and will have to be in series for a large lift, however how large?
Six weeks in the past, the dialog revolved round whether or not Purdy would possibly money in for $60 million in keeping with yr. However because the season slips away and a few of Purdy’s bodily obstacles floor, may the 49ers make a decision to attend? May just they pursue extra of a compromise trade in, within the spirit of what Inexperienced Bay did with Love in 2023? There’s era to determine one thing.
8. So much to Play games For Unwell The Stretch With Commitment Talks Forward
The veteran we signed at the reasonable will command an extension if this helps to keep up.
Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Signed via: 2024 | APY Rank: 63 | QB EPA Rank: 8/40
The only-year, $1.2 million trade in Wilson signed with the Steelers (year nonetheless accumulating $37.8 million from Denver on his earlier trade in) ranks as the largest cut price within the league this season.
Wilson’s passing manufacturing in six begins initiatives to 4,706 yards with 28 touchdowns and 9 interceptions over a 17-game agenda. The general 5 video games ship some tough defenses, however with the Steelers all however confident a playoff berth, Wilson has a splendid alternative to build Pittsburgh his longer-term house.
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9. Comparing: Lengthy Runways
Our first-round beginners are simply getting began.
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Signed via: 2027 (now not counting fifth-year possibility) | APY Rank: 24 | QB EPA Rank: 5/40
This season has showcased Daniels’ dual-threat prowess together with some preexisting sturdiness considerations, however Washington should be more than happy with its choice of Daniels total. His EPA in keeping with go play games ranks 5th via 13 begins amongst all beginners since 2000, in keeping with TruMedia. Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III, Ben Roethlisberger and Prescott rank upper. Wilson, Herbert and Stroud rank 6th via 8th, respectively. This is beneficial corporate for Daniels.
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Signed via: 2027 (now not counting fifth-year possibility) | APY Rank: 22 | QB EPA Rank: 30/40
Williams has long gone from rating a number of the base 10 in EPA in keeping with go play games beneath former coordinator Shane Waldron to rating a number of the summit 10 then 3 video games with Thomas Brown within the function. Whether or not this is sustainable, the uptick has been encouraging for the Deny. 1 select within the 2024 draft. Who will likely be training Williams for the long run?
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Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Signed via: 2027 (now not counting fifth-year possibility) | APY Rank: 39 | QB EPA Rank: 26/40
Nix has feasted at the AFC West and NFC South, combining for 15 landing passes with one interception in 8 video games, together with six Denver victories. He ranks a number of the summit 10 in a length of passing sections, together with EPA in keeping with go play games, since Occasion 8.
Drake Maye, Fresh England Patriots
Signed via: 2027 (now not counting fifth-year possibility) | APY Rank: 25 | QB EPA Rank: 22/40
Maye has much less round him than the alternative first-round rookie quarterbacks, one reason why the Patriots have been unenthusiastic to begin him instantly. He has arguably outperformed expectancies for the reason that context, moving the point of interest clear of him and onto what Fresh England should do to aid him within the coming offseason.
10. Comparing: Clock Is Ticking
We haven’t give up at the 2023 first-round alternatives we benched, however there’s some urgency.
Bryce Younger, Carolina Panthers
Benched then most effective two video games this season, Younger has performed smartly plethora in 5 video games since his go back to resume hope for his month. The Panthers are 2-3 and averaging 21.4 offensive issues in keeping with competition since Younger’s go back. They’d a 2-16 report year averaging 11.2 issues in keeping with competition on offense in his earlier 18 begins.
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Signed via: 2026 (now not counting fifth-year possibility) | APY Rank: 23 | QB EPA Rank: 34/40
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Signed via: 2026 (now not counting fifth-year possibility) | APY Rank: 29 | QB EPA Rank: 31/40
The Colts have been a lot worse on offense right through the 2 video games Joe Flacco began than they have been prior to now or since Richardson returned to the lineup for the pace 3 video games. Richardson rest a low-percentage passer able to the impressive however remains to be in the hunt for consistency. How affected person will the Colts be in creating him?
11. Comparing: Want An Extra
Our younger QB may play games his approach right into a month with us, however it’s taking a look like we’ll be available in the market for an improve.
Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
Signed via: 2026 | APY Rank: 53 | QB EPA Rank: 35/40
The Titans’ flow training personnel inherited Levis and may hold him however possibly would now not need to guess its month on him, given the returns thus far. Can Levis end robust?
Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders
Signed via: 2026 | APY Rank: 71 | QB EPA Rank: 15/40
The Raiders had O’Connell on their roster getting into this season and most well-liked signing Gardner Minshew for $12.5 million in keeping with yr. Can O’Connell play games his approach into their month plans over the excess 5 video games? His 340-yard competition at Kansas Town used to be a get started.
12. Thank You For Your Carrier (And The Era Comp Pick out)
We’re thankful for our QB however dedicated to another one.
Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Signed via: 2024 | APY Rank: 21 | QB EPA Rank: 19/40
The guess here’s that Darnold has performed smartly plethora to earn a possibility more than what the Vikings can assurance him in 2025, when first-round select J.J. McCarthy returns from knee surgical procedure to possibly declare the foundation activity.
13. Most likely Headed to Separate Company as a Bridge Starter/Alternative
There will likely be a marketplace for those veterans, however now not essentially because the undisputed starter.
Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns
Signed via: 2024 | APY Rank: 42 | QB EPA Rank: 20/40
The Browns are averaging 21.8 offensive issues in keeping with competition when Winston begins then averaging 13.4 when Deshaun Watson used to be within the lineup previous within the season. Their price of explosive go performs has greater than doubled from 8.4 p.c with Watson to 17.8 p.c with Winston.
It’s conceivable the Browns or any other crew will venture Winston as a starter then season. The 2 select sixes Winston threw in opposition to Denver on Monday night time tempered one of the crucial fresh zeal.
Daniel Jones, Minnesota Vikings
Signed via: 2024 | APY Rank: 90 | QB EPA Rank: 32/40
Jones may fill the Darnold function for the Vikings then season if Darnold reveals a greater alternative somewhere else. He may additionally take a look at the marketplace, even though alternative era with O’Connell in Minnesota might be beneficial for his profession long term.
14. We’re Taking a look For A Manner Out
Backup! Our quarterback may now not get started for any crew, however we owe him greater than $90 million over the then two seasons.
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Signed via: 2026 | APY Rank: 11 | QB EPA Rank: 40/40
The worst assurance in NFL historical past isn’t getting higher quickly plethora for the Browns. Watson, out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon, is scheduled to rely $72.9 million in opposition to the cap in every of the then two seasons. The ones figures might be manipulated in numerous techniques, however Watson is getting his cash regardless, except he violates the assurance somehow.
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Deshaun Watson and a Browns depart plan (when they in the end admit it’s over): Sando’s Pick out Six
(Manage photograph of Russell Wilson, left, and Aaron Rodgers: Joe Sargent / Getty Pictures)
The tale of the best avid gamers in NFL historical past. In 100 riveting profiles, summit soccer writers justify their choices and discover the historical past of the NFL within the procedure.
The tale of the best avid gamers in NFL historical past.
