WNBA playoff projections: Will Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever assemble the trim?

WNBA playoff projections: Will Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever assemble the trim?

 

The WNBA is already complete velocity forward into the second one part of the season, and it’ll be a dash to the end. Habitual-season motion leads to precisely one generation, with each and every crew packing 12-14 video games within the ultimate stretch.

As avid gamers re-acclimate to following the Olympic crack and assemble one final push for the postseason, here’s a take a look at which groups I mission will assemble the playoffs in addition to a to-do checklist for each and every crew to concentrate on to be in the most efficient conceivable place come playoff month.


Playoff-bound

1. Untouched York Independence

Keep the route

The Independence take me back to the fact of the Aces at this level final season. Untouched York is the most efficient crew within the league, and a few malicious video games or a malicious day received’t trade that, simply as an August swoon for Las Vegas didn’t stop the Aces from repeating as champs. It’ll be attention-grabbing to peer if the Independence make a selection to chase the single-season wins document of 34, eager through the Aces final presen. Untouched York too can connect the most efficient successful share of all-time — the Houston Comets received 90 % in their video games in 1998 — through successful out, however that could be a Pyrrhic victory if the Independence tire themselves out and don’t cap off the season with a hoop. Simply ask the 2016 Blonde Circumstance Warriors.

2. Minnesota Lynx

Inject a minute selection

The Lynx are loaded with leap shooters, however they don’t put a ton of drive at the rim, as they’re final in issues within the paint and free-throw charge. That makes them too reliant at the 3-point shot for an extended order, even if they’ve 4 rotation avid gamers (Kayla McBride, Alanna Smith, Bridget Carleton and Cecilia Zandalasini) capturing higher than 40 % from the area. Once they kill beneath 35.5 % from 3-point dimension (league moderate is 33.8), they’re 5-5. As soon as defenses lock in on taking out the 3-point order — the Independence, particularly, appear well-suited to change the whole lot towards them — it’s non-transperant how the Lynx will generate constant offense.

3. Connecticut Solar

Diversify the offensive assault

The Solar are necessarily the inverse of the Lynx when it comes to their offensive profile. They know what they’ve within the heavy 3 of Alyssa Thomas, Bri Jones and DeWanna Bonner. However that trio hasn’t been ready to get Connecticut over the hump within the postseason, so the remainder of this common season will have to lend as reconnaissance for the Solar — they wish to work out which perimeter participant, or which perimeter movements, can break in when defenses house in at the frontcourt. Connecticut has inclined into two-player movements with the newly-acquired Marina Mabrey and Thomas, however towards the Atlanta Dream protection, which sinks into the paint, the Solar’s spacing nonetheless wasn’t just right plethora. Connecticut must form extra choices within the part courtroom, together with expanding its 3-point try charge. These days, 21.2 % of the Solar’s issues come from past the arc, which isn’t plethora towards high-powered offensive groups just like the Aces and the Independence.

4. Las Vegas Aces

Give the celebs some remainder

The Aces have the bones of the crew that received final presen’s identify, however they haven’t been ready to build that method persistently. It’s brittle to consider that crew isn’t nonetheless there, particularly then gazing A’ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Younger have such robust showings on the Paris Olympics. The disorder is that the Aces have a heavy hill to climb within the standings, and their avid gamers have persisted large mins this presen, to not point out the too much burden of a couple of investigations into the group. They won’t have the gasoline to assemble it thru a complete playoff run in the event that they conserve the similar mins load. Consequently, although it’s anathema to their stars, as Becky Hammon indicated on The Athletic’s “Women’s Basketball Show” previous this presen, they’ll most likely have to take part in some measure of load control. Younger already appears to be like used i’m sick then coming back from Paris, and she or he’s arguably Las Vegas’ second-most remarkable participant. Although it hurts them within the standings, the Aces need to whisk the lengthy view.

5. Seattle Typhoon

Get Jewell Loyd out of her hunch

The Typhoon’s 3-point capturing has been atrocious in 2024, with a league-worst 29.3 % from lengthy dimension. Seattle isn’t precisely bursting with snipers, but if the participant who’s taking greater than 1 / 4 of the crew’s 3-point makes an attempt is capturing 26 % from distance, that’s a disorder. The speculation used to be that Jewell Loyd’s capturing percentages would toughen with a lighter offensive load given the coming of Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike, however that hasn’t been the case. Not anything appears to be like mistaken with Loyd’s method, and she or he’s nonetheless making greater than 87 % of her unfastened throws, so it sort of feels like a question of month till the bug turns, however the Typhoon’s offense can’t live on with out Loyd changing into extra environment friendly.

6. Indiana Fever

Be extra disciplined defensively

The Fever have a number of defensive issues, as is to be anticipated for a crew this is second-to-last in defensive score. A lot of the ones issues were mitigated through their rip-roaring offense in contemporary video games, however the principle factor is how ceaselessly they ship opposing groups to the foul order. It could be more uncomplicated to forgive combatants’ lofty free-throw charge if Indiana pressured a quantity of surrenders — the ones unfastened throws would merely be a casualty of Indiana’s aggression. Then again, the Fever rank final in opponent handover share and eleventh in defensive free-throw charge. They may be able to manage to pay for to be much less handsy as a result of they’re now not taking the ball anyway; moreover, in line with PBP stats, they ranking 6.7 extra issues in line with 100 possessions off of made area objectives than made unfastened throws.Why Caitlin Clark’s Olympics omission could be blessing in hide for her rookie season

7. Phoenix Mercury

Rebound

Some groups prioritize the defensive glass, others the offensive glass. With the Mercury, corralling forums is a attempt on each ends. They rank eleventh in each offensive rebounding share and defensive rebounding share. A few of that is structural, as Phoenix typically performs a bevy of wings and just one true frontcourt participant, whether or not that’s Brittney Griner or Natasha Mack. The Mercury have got even smaller with the shock to Rebecca Allen, which has additional compromised their ownership downside — the opposing crew took 14 extra field-goal makes an attempt in each and every in their first two video games of the second one part. The roster received’t trade meaningfully from now till the tip of the season; at this level, Phoenix has to decide to boxing out higher.

8. Atlanta Dream

Play games extra optimum lineup combos

The Dream had a reasonably appalling first part, particularly since they gave up regulate in their 2025 first-round pick out within the Allisha Grey industry — that offer used to be the proper walk for Atlanta ultimately, however it does negate the price of tanking forward of what is usually a game-changing draft. That’s why the Dream have to maximise their provide and assemble a run on the playoffs in spite of shedding 8 directly heading into the Olympic crack.

Thankfully for the Dream, Atlanta is after all wholesome plethora to maximise its roster. Even then successful two in a row, the Dream sit down final within the league in offensive score at 94.8 issues in line with 100 possessions, which will be the worst mark within the WNBA since 2021. The 5 avid gamers who’ve a favorable on-off differential on offense are Grey, Tina Charles, Naz Hillmon, Rhyne Howard and Jordin Canada, however they have been by no means to be had on the identical month all through the primary part. They’re now, and Tanisha Wright has began that crew within the final two contests, main to 2 heavy wins over Seattle and Connecticut. That’s a unit that enhances each and every alternative’s ability units with rim drive, capturing and perimeter and inner protection, and Atlanta wishes to maximise their mins in the future.


Chasing the post-season

9. Chicago Sky

Unharness Dana Evans

The Sky have 5 avid gamers below word nearest season, two of whom determine to be a part of the day core in Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso. Dana Evans will probably be a limited unfastened agent, so Chicago can book her round on a long-term word if she presentations compatibility with the frontcourt duo. Up to now, Lindsay Allen and Chennedy Carter were a long way higher perimeter enhances, however that is Evans’ anticipation to assemble her case to stay round. Although it doesn’t travel effectively, shedding isn’t the worst-case state of affairs for the Sky, which might nonetheless land within the lottery in the event that they and the Wings each pass over the playoffs.

10. Dallas Wings

Blank up surrenders

Once in a while, we’ll prevent speaking concerning the hollow at Dallas’ level barricade place. As of late isn’t that past. The Wings had their first-choice inauguration 5 to be had towards Connecticut to kick off the second one part of the season, and all that ended in used to be 21 surrenders, even worse than their league-leading mark of 16.6 in line with match. Sevgi Uzun hasn’t been the solution at level barricade; 19.4 % of her possessions lead to a handover, which ranks one hundred and thirty fifth amongst all WNBA avid gamers. Ultimate presen’s three-headed level barricade assault of Crystal Dangerfield, Veronica Burton and Odyssey Sims is all on alternative groups, escape Uzun and rookie Jacy Sheldon (who truly isn’t a herbal supremacy barricade) to take care of the ones tasks, and struggles were unclouded.

In equity to these newbies, post-ups naturally supremacy to extra surrenders, and Dallas (arguably the largest crew within the league) ranks moment in post-ups in line with match. However, most of the Wings’ mistakes are unforced, doubtlessly a outcome in their mishmash of avid gamers now not being at the identical web page. Most likely higher condition will supremacy to extra concord as a result of Dallas must deal its possessions to get again into the playoff image.

11. Los Angeles Sparks

Flip the Paige

Sadly for long-suffering Sparks enthusiasts who’ve witnessed their crew assemble 3 consecutive journeys to wheel of fortune, a fourth is in the most efficient long-term passion of the franchise, particularly then rookie Cameron Verge of collapse tore her ACL in June. L.A. doesn’t have the ability to compete within the playoffs, and it doesn’t assemble sense to chase the 8th seed for a two-game sweep, particularly when the Sparks regulate their first-round pick out this presen however now not in 2026. Preferably, L.A. options its younger avid gamers up to conceivable and sees what Rickea Jackson, Rae Burrell, Zia Cooke and Li Yueru are in a position to sooner than the 2025 offseason, when the Sparks must assemble a roster that may contend. Falling to the base of the standings (L.A. is recently two video games “ahead” of Washington for the worst document over two years) will permit the Sparks to have the most efficient conceivable lottery odds for the Paige Bueckers draft. She’s the easiest perimeter supplement to their rookie frontcourt of Verge of collapse and Jackson.

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12. Washington Mystics

Re-establish Shakira Austin

Nearest an all-rookie marketing campaign in 2022 that culminated in a place at the Workforce USA FIBA Global Cup roster, Austin hasn’t been wholesome plethora to recreate that stage of play games for constant stretches. Now that she’s again for the Mystics, that is their anticipation to reacclimate Austin to WNBA play games era visual how she suits nearest to Aaliyah Edwards. Washington will most likely have a minimum of one, if now not two, lottery alternatives within the after draft, and the entrance workplace wishes to determine if the franchise wishes any other frontcourt piece, or if Austin and Edwards will also be the fulcrums in the future. The excellent news for the Mystics is that they’ve competent barricade play games in Julie Vanloo and Brittney Sykes, so they are able to adequately evaluation their frontcourt in that context.

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